So far most of the world has lived under the illusion that the invasion of Ukraine is a regional conflict between two neighbouring countries, but with the deployment of North Korean troops to the region this plausible deniability may not last much longer. In response there are reports that South Korea may start providing armaments to the Ukrainian military. Regardless of the latter what we see is the potential first step in turning the Ukrainian invasion into an inter-continental conflict.
Kim Jong Un knows he has a strong hand vis-á-vis Russia and no doubt he intends to play it to the full. A detachment of 8,000 is barely a rounding error as far as the North Korean military is concerned so them going into the meat-grinder so Kim won’t bat an eye-lid, but Putin who is already dependent on North Korean shells has to play the game. The South Koreans are rightly worried because Kim’s prize is technology transfer from Russia and this may well be nuclear-related and will certainly be military-related.
It gets worse. If things were to kick off in Asia Kim Jong Un would be able to call in favours from Putin and the result is Russia being involved in an Asian conflict as well as a European one. Previously South Korea has been reluctant to give munitions to Kyiv because of the worries about a proxy war between North and South leading to conflict on the peninsula, but should Russia and North Korea end up forming an axis then it potentially becomes the South’s interest to help hasten Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.
Regardless of whether the South decides to send military aid or not the North being involved in Ukraine means that this can no longer plausibly be considered just a regional conflict. Should something kick off in Asia the overlapping belligerents mean that the conflicts in Asia and Europe would be linked.
This war is expanding. The West must do more to bring it to an end before it expands further.