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You have made a huge strategic error invading Ukraine. Since you gained power 25 years ago you have built a web of corruption, mercenary groups in Africa amongst other places, and waged war after war.

2022 as Kasparov would say was a strategic blunder and will be your undoing. You have underestimated the continent of Europe, with or without America and the Orange buffoon in the White House. Not doubt you will play him and carry on and he’ll say “a beautiful brilliant deal has been done” and then you’ll smash dozens of missiles into Kiev.

Refer to the video above — last time Putin took a president for a ride. Same old tricks are being played.

The problem you have here Vladimir is you have totally underestimated European resolve. Quick clue, we care about our Countries and our Sovereignty, as does Ukraine. And, unlike you we will WIN and minimise casualties on both the Russian and Ukrainian side. Unlike you we and our Generals actually give a shit about our soldiers and loss of life. Unlike you we understand your weaknesses. In fact we know everything about you and we haven’t moved yet.

Once we do you will lose power because you will lose and we all know what that means if you understand Russian history, which I do. If you don’t back down now and stop the needless murder of 1,500 of your own Country men a week, good young men, then we will attack and you will lose power.

By the way you might think you have an alliance with China but actually they are an enemy and haven’t moved yet. They will invade Siberia and take it once you are sufficiently weakened because of the war in Ukraine. You’re not as clever as you think you are, are you Vladimir?

Corrupt? Yes. A criminal? Yes. A murderer? Yes. Abusive of your own Country and Country men? Absolutely.

Three days to take Kiev? How did that go for you?

Back out right now or you will lose power and we all know what happens then.

Most Europeans thought that feudal encounters in Europe were a thing of the past. We would never again be subjected to war because we had learnt from the past. We were educated, we communicated with each other, we listened to one another.

After World War 2 great efforts were made to encourage a fair and considerate co-existence. Organisations were created, rules put in place, remembrance plaques were erected. The horrors of war were taught in schools, lest we forget what it is like not to live in peace. From primary school age onwards we were taught to help each other, to be kind and considerate, to lead by example, be strong, measured and to stand up to bullies.

So how did we get to where we are now? At what point did all that appear to stop mattering?

Human nature gives us the ability to be good or bad and our exposure and environment play the biggest parts in polarising us in one direction or another. There has never been a time when our environment has been so open to influence as it has since the advent of the internet. Sponsored malicious social media content distributed by self-interested people of influence, infiltrate and polarise our environment at an astonishing rate and leave us open to wholesale manipulation. The ulterior motives of tech giants, media moguls, social media manipulators and political agents that have access to our data and our environment can deliberately, surreptitiously and insidiously change the way we think and act.

Consciously or not we all started thinking unwittingly that the things we own and use are more important than our societal standards, our compassion, our security and our collective mental health. We turn a blind eye to the appalling actions of large corporations as long as we can still use our phones, the internet, stream our entertainment and buy our gasoline.

We have this week witnessed events in America’s Oval office; the most shameful attempted belittling of a state representative that one could imagine by two bullies (most probably to impress Russia’s Putin). Mr Trump, assisted by Mr Vance has embarrassed himself and the Office on a grand scale with the way he spoke over and down to president Zelenskyy of Ukraine and in doing so showed the world his ineptitude for leading a country.

With Trump there is no hint of diplomacy, no respect for democracy, no attempt to promote good will between states and no recognition of a rules based society. This, America, is the person you voted in. Not once, but twice. This was your choice? Is this how you want the world to see you? This behaviour will be watched by millions, and the impressionable young people of the world, some of whom will grow up to be bosses, leaders or people of influence will take this behaviour to be the way to get ahead in the world.

Donald Trump is ousting anyone who does not agree with him. He is pardoning convicted criminals — just because they were on his side. He is making a mockery of the American political and judicial systems. He accused the fairly elected president of Ukraine of potentially starting World War Three and cosied up to Putin who quite possibly will be responsible for starting World War Three. Trump’s actions exemplify dictatorship on every level and should be setting off alarm bells across the world, not just at home.

The reason the likes of Trump succeed is that the agreeable people of the world, the kind ones, the measured ones, don’t like to make a fuss. They don’t think their opinions matter. They think there is nothing they can do, BUT THERE IS SOMETHING THEY CAN DO!

This is not a time to be doing nothing. We all have one voice — the same number as people like Trump. We must amplify our voices. We must speak out, attend protests, organise protests, get animated. Write to you local elected representatives and state your concerns. Encourage others to do the same. We must stand up to bullying and misinformation whenever and wherever we encounter it.

Social media can be a force for good or for bad, be vigilant and use it wisely. Don’t believe everything you read. Fact check before reacting to or forwarding content — especially vindictive or polarising content. Don’t give in to hateful speech. Consider that much of what is posted is politically biased and possibly AI generated.

Some world players want us to throw mud at each other, they want us to hate each other and ultimately they want us to fight each other because along with oil, minerals, and your data, the big players of the world also profit from war. They are manipulating the news, social media and public opinion by any means to stay in power to make more money and they don’t care who gets hurt along the way. The current malignant trend in lies, greed, tyranny and social discourse exhibited by some pretty rotten people in power will drag us all down with it. We must speak out against injustice.

Right now Europe needs to be strong. Europe needs to stand behind Ukraine.

There is a strange irony in the Russian psyche. On one hand they see themselves as a superpower and in many respects given their natural resources that is correct, on the other they are paranoid by their own weaknesses and vulnerabilities. Their huge borders with many nations and low population density does indeed make them vulnerable.

Addressing the real border risk by attacking a neighbouring Countries that are non-aggressive is insane and demonstrably so. The resources required to run a war across over a 1,000km front, as they are doing in Ukraine, are astronomical large but the costs are not just financial, they are human, economic, and importantly result in new threats emerging. Fighting in the rear view mirror is not a winning strategy and Putin has been doing it for some time.

This leads to another irony. Putin believes all he has to do is put the economy on a war footing, give a confident end of year national address and Ukraine will eventually fall. However second order effects are taking affect. They are:

• Inflation
• A swing to higher defence spending of adversaries
• A lack of resources to address externalities
• An inability to replace manpower and equipment

The irony is that we are told that time is what is going to win the war for Russia. In fact it is what is going to win the war for Ukraine. Syria gave a glimpse of this, the Russians couldn’t commit resources to their bases there because they are already fully committed. Layer on top of this the pseudo states the Kremlin is trying to control in the Stans, Georgia, their African interests, and they have their hands full. But that isn’t where they should be looking, it’s their territory to the East.

China is the big winner out of the Russian / Ukrainian war. They are literally looking at the Kremlin pour resources and be weakened year after year whilst getting resources themselves on the cheap. Take a map of China, North of Beijing across the border there are vast swathes of land that used to be Chinese and that the Chinese still believe to be Chinese. Good luck defending that when they decide to make a move.

Closer to home in Red Square its safe to say the Ukrainians are not going to accept anything other than their own Sovereignty and why should they? Putin wrote a ridiculous essay explaining why Ukrainians were Russian in July 2021. The tanks weren’t welcomed with open arms, the war wasn’t three days long and Ukrainians aren’t Russian. One in six died fighting for their Country in the second world war. Putin hasn’t just kicked a hornets nest he has sown the seeds of his own downfall.

Slowly, slowly the war is coming back to Russia and will continue to do so within their borders. The negative economic effects will become increasing destabilising as the Ukrainians sabotage, bomb, and disrupt Russian cities.

This is not a stalemate, it is the beginning of a collapse. Rot in a system can temporarily be hidden but in the end collapse is the result. West of this collapse the Ukrainians will rebuild whilst Russia comes to terms of the folly of the Putin regime as it counts its dead and broken society. That short little man didn’t realise the only person he couldn’t tell the truth to was himself.

Zelenskyy does and so does Ukraine.

So far most of the world has lived under the illusion that the invasion of Ukraine is a regional conflict between two neighbouring countries, but with the deployment of North Korean troops to the region this plausible deniability may not last much longer. In response there are reports that South Korea may start providing armaments to the Ukrainian military. Regardless of the latter what we see is the potential first step in turning the Ukrainian invasion into an inter-continental conflict.

Kim Jong Un knows he has a strong hand vis-á-vis Russia and no doubt he intends to play it to the full. A detachment of 8,000 is barely a rounding error as far as the North Korean military is concerned so them going into the meat-grinder so Kim won’t bat an eye-lid, but Putin who is already dependent on North Korean shells has to play the game. The South Koreans are rightly worried because Kim’s prize is technology transfer from Russia and this may well be nuclear-related and will certainly be military-related.

It gets worse. If things were to kick off in Asia Kim Jong Un would be able to call in favours from Putin and the result is Russia being involved in an Asian conflict as well as a European one. Previously South Korea has been reluctant to give munitions to Kyiv because of the worries about a proxy war between North and South leading to conflict on the peninsula, but should Russia and North Korea end up forming an axis then it potentially becomes the South’s interest to help hasten Russia’s defeat in Ukraine.

Regardless of whether the South decides to send military aid or not the North being involved in Ukraine means that this can no longer plausibly be considered just a regional conflict. Should something kick off in Asia the overlapping belligerents mean that the conflicts in Asia and Europe would be linked.

This war is expanding. The West must do more to bring it to an end before it expands further.

At one we were at one at Runneymede. Before this we were warring clans and factions. To be frank a rabble. King James the First — put aside religious differences at great personal risk to unite the British Isles.

A couple of centuries later the houses of parliament was formed which allowed a trusted basis for the rule of law, property rights, habeas corpus. No freeman shall ever be disallowed of his possessions until trialed under the law of the land.

It could be argued that Issac Newton gave the spark that ignited the industrial revolution with his startling insights into physics, but it would be nothing without the genesis that was gifted to us by our ancestors.

Without this framework, built on trust, there would have been no free trade or as a result the British Empire. An Empire that via its principles helped bring the world into modernity and with it an explosion of wealth and prosperity.

Why does this matter, today in our own times?

The answer is the formula works. Look at what happened to the former Soviet states such as Romania or the Baltic states. In only a handful of decades their GDP per capita grew with astonishing alacrity by embracing these basic principles.

On the other side of the coin you have populism which is now rising across Europe. This will not result in a good outcome but what’s been causing it? It is lack of participation in the economic pie. Too many have been left behind. Include them and the future will be good, exclude them and war will be a direct consequence.

Populism is attractive but dangerous.

From Lisbon to Valdivostok the UK was the only Country that didn’t fall to communism or dictatorship. Embrace these principles because they work for everyone. Don’t fall for the populist yarn and the world will be a better place.

What do people expect from a Leader?

Three main things are expected from a head of state. Peace, Order and Prosperity. Let’s unpack these in the case of Russia.

Firstly let’s look at Order:
Putin scores highly on this one. He has no trouble maintaining order within his own country. His people are compliant. Whether this is through fear or wilful agreement is open to debate, even if the latter is by obtained by wholesale manipulation of state media.

Secondly let’s look at Peace.
Clearly not one of Putin’s strengths. He commands a formidable military mass and until recently held the respect of the entire world as a force not to be messed with. The best way to ensure peace is to have an unquestionable military might – and then keep it quietly in reserve. Unfortunately Putin didn’t get the memo.

He masked an invasion as a ‘special operation’ and committed hundreds of thousands of his own people to assured death. He promised his country more than it could deliver and now is too embarrassed to back down – preferring instead to commit a further reported twelve hundred a day to a terrible fate.

Contrary to bringing peace to the Russian mainland, it has resulted in a counter attack from the Ukrainians into the Kursk region. Putin is incensed by this because deep down he has to know that he is responsible for what he’s brought this upon his country. The displaced people of the Kursk region must know that Putin holds full responsibility for the understandable and measured reaction from Ukraine to an invasion by Russia.

Russia has shown itself to be weaker than the world through its economic, military and diplomatic might is being depleted day-by-day. Putin has failed to bring peace to the region, he has done precisely the opposite.

That takes us into Prosperity. Are the Russian people benefiting from the war in Ukraine? No. Instead they will feel the financial burden of the war effort sapping 40 percent of the countries budget. Russia is getting into debt with its allies and giving away Russian resources to help fund the war. The average Russian citizen will carry the burden of this war for years to come.

Astonishingly Russia is throwing an insane amount of money at killing its own civilians and turning vast swathes of the worlds population against it.

We are supposed to be living in a civilised age where we learn from history, use medicine and technology to improve our lives, where we respect each other and lives matter, irrespective of whether they are Ukranian, Russian, American, European, or any other. Instead Russia is throwing vast amounts of money into conflict.

Putin can stop this madness.

President Putin – if you are reading this, get out of Ukraine and find more intelligent ways to interact with the rest of the world. Your land is rich in minerals, use them to better effect. Your people are resourceful and intelligent – they deserve better from you.

Outwardly looking Russia is a powerful Country. A huge land mass, enormous natural resources, but it has bad governance. Its elite steal this wealth from their people and throw them to their death to maintain power. Corruption is endemic, media controlled by the state, the rule of law made up on the fly. The boarders are porous and undefendable. Rot not only has begun to set in, it has set in.

Its only a matter of time until it falls again. Like a drug addict, the bounty of natural resources mask its problems. In all societies across the global the real power is contained in the unleashed potential which resides in peoples’ heads. Allowing contribution rather than suppressing it results in a better outcome than a corrupt murderous thief that has a penchant to throw people out of windows, shoot and poison them while walking through palaces paid for by you, the Russian people, with a funny right hand ‘I am a dictator’ gait.

Pathetic doesn’t cover it. Let’s pull in mercenaries from Africa for a pittance and send them to their death, do deals with North Korea and Iran to provide munitions to flatten cities killing innocent men women and children. Fire at non-military targets, schools, hospitals, power infrastructure. Russia is this want you want? A kick back is coming and it’ll be paid with interest.

Meanwhile as your Army is half decimated, a good portion of men of fighting age are either dead or injured, the Navy can’t be used because of the innovation of a Country that doesn’t have a Navy — the moral injustice of invading a Country is fighting back. It won’t stop, neither will the innovation to strike behind your lines and bring the war home to Russia, with or without Western blessing. A three day special operation; are you sure?

Spending 40% of government revenue on arms, emptying the Country of prisoners to send to their death doesn’t look sustainable. Those big wide boarders, over extended commitment for rubble on a bet that has been called. Like the Matryoshka Doll it looks intimidating from the outside but once the layers are peeled back the weakness is exposed.

If hatred, death, misery and suffering is the politic offer from an incoherent misguided interpretation of history from a pillock in the Kremlin there will only be one winner: Zelenskyy.

For many centuries Russia and the USSR before it has be categorised by strong rulers. Therein ironically lies a deep paradox. A belief that strong rulers will protect the population. The reverse is in fact true, look at Putin’s regime. It has been at war with various countries almost since he got his feet under the table in the Kremlin, stoking enemies. Lashing out comes at a cost and leaves the Country exposed and overstretched.

Looking at Russia from the outside world you see a nuclear power with a large military. Looking West from Moscow all you see is a huge border that is difficult to protect. This drives the paranoia. The strong leader, conflicts, unnecessary deaths, and a poorer population are the result. Now, today the misadventure gets even worse because they have lost a significant part of their military capability which is heavily over-committed to the war in Ukraine.

2% of their male population between the ages of 25 and 45 is either already dead or severely wounded. The effect of which will be felt for generations, never mind the damage done between Russian and Ukrainan relations, which will take decades to heal.

But it gets worse. Eleven time zones east and the boarder with China is under threat. Most of those dead have been taken to the front are from east of Moscow for deniability purposes. This leaves Russia very exposed from China who believe are large part of eastern Russia is in fact theirs, as proven by previous wars. Then there are the ‘stans. With such a low population density and huge borders Russia is very vulnerable to attack and there is not a lot they can do about it.

Putin has gone through his career using propaganda to control the population and the narrative but in the end it doesn’t matter. Only results do and Ukraine has called his bluff with the incursion. There’s no point banging your head against a brick wall in Donbas which is heavily fortified, instead step over the low bar and walk over an undefended part of the border. No air defence in place, as Ukrainan MiGs flying overhead illustrate operating at will. 74 settlements have already fallen. Zaluzhny called it and did very well to keep the element of surprise.

Its in the interests of both populations to stop the fighting, but the lives of Ukrainians that have already been lost cannot be forgotten. This incursion puts them in a stronger position. Neither can the behavior of Russian troops be excused. Once this war is won, justice must be done to the perpetrators and their crimes. Then Ukraine will be rebuilt and thrive. Their ingenuity and burgeoning tech sector is already showing the sun-lit uplands that lie ahead, a sector which incidentally grew 30% last year alone.

Which side do you prefer: A corrupt regime that derives its wealth from the hydrocarbons in the ground, no freedom for their population, no innovation, suppression and random prison sentences; or a Country that wants to embrace free trade and democracy which has innovation coming out of its ears? Good luck Putin — your going to need it.

Slava Ukraini.

The human race has an extraordinary ability to be creative and to destroy itself. For most of the last 80 years the former has held, before that we had World War Two in which we lost over 55 million people.

Stupidity doesn’t cover what we collectively did, but sadly when the time comes you have to fight to beat tyranny. We did — in the UK it nearly bankrupted the Country, which lost its empire in the process but we did secure our freedom which was a win not only for ourselves but also for others across the world. Hundreds of millions across the globe benefited from the sacrifices made to defeat the Nazis, technology and trade came on in leaps and bounds. People were welcomed from foreign lands to our own shores which powered innovation.

Today we are in reverse. Immigration is frowned upon. Economic growth has stagnated since 2008. The spirit which drove the innovation across the last half of the 20th century has begun to be lost. We should be more confident. The collective potential is there and we should cease it for the good of all, including future generations.

When the second world war broke out the UK on its own had about 11% of global GDP and an empire that it could draw upon. Despite this and being an island which was a natural form of defense this wasn’t enough to win. As Churchill knew we needed America to join the war effort to achieve victory for freedom and democracy.

What lessons in history lie for us in todays world? Today America accounts for approximately 20% of global GDP. America cannot defend the world on its own. With wars bubbling up in Europe, the middle east and potentially China with Taiwan they will become too stretched. The answer to defend freedom and democracy is to collaborate.

The first steps in what this might look like have already taken place. European countries are working together to protect the continent against unprovoked Russian aggression. Globally we have collaboration between Countries as demonstrated with the AUKUS deal. Together we are stronger. Together democracies will defeat autocracies. It’s worth bearing in mind that most Russians don’t want to be Russian, like all humans they want the freedoms that we all enjoy. Last year 750,000 people moved to the UK. There is a reason for this — it’s a good place to live.

Turning to Ukraine we need to pull together and deliver a knock out punch. Stalemate will only mean more people dying on both sides which is good for no one. Putin’s world only suits him and the elites not the Russian populous in general. Politics and the military need to align across nations to deliver an outcome for the good of all. If we cease this opportunity tyranny will be stamped out and as Churchill said ‘broad sunlight uplands’ await on the other side. Don’t hesitate, just do.

There have always been atrocities carried out in war.

The usual expectation is that atrocities are carried out by rogue entities. Beleaguered and war jaded soldiers. Perhaps hardened detachments that have suffered horrific sights and cruelty to the point that death and suffering no longer hold any meaning. They spur each other on as a show of misguided solidarity. Souls that have given up on hope and no longer believe in a final day of reckoning or the notion of good and evil.

The propaganda machine forges hatred between individuals that in any other circumstance could be friends.

This is not peculiar to Russia. Foul acts are carried out by individuals and groups the world over, both military and non military. War provides a fertile ground for such behaviour. Anonymity lets, the devil mind wander. It’s not acceptable, but it is sadly to some extent understandable.

What is happening in Russia however is far less understandable and utterly unforgivable. It is not rogue behaviour it is planned and ordered. Systematic removal and transportation of children from their homes in Ukraine to re-education centres in Russia. Erasure of heritage, changing of children’s names, painting their real parents as demons or traitors. In a word — Russification. Hundreds of thousands of children from their mothers.

This could never be the work of individuals or rogue groups, this can only be achieved by government agencies. Task forces set up with orders from the top. Putin’s illegitimate dream team.

But what is Putin’s excuse? Was he beaten or abandoned as a child? Did he never experience love or compassion? Has he forgotten conveniently that he is a self confessed Christian?

What kind of man could take a child from its mother? Is that the kind of man you would want to know? To befriend, look to for guidance? They say you can judge a man by his friends. Worth thinking about.

Are you part of the trafficking? Are you re-educating Ukrainian children with books that have had the history of Ukraine bastardised? Were you told that the children were orphans and had nowhere to go, or they were being mistreated by their evil parents? Wake up and smell the coffee. Every single person in the chain that is involved in the trafficking of children from Ukraine to Russia knows it is wrong. Every one. Many of those involved will have children themselves. For this shocking behaviour to be normalised and conducted by so many people in the sordid supply chain show a truly corrupted society with a diseased mind at the top.

To the rich people at the top of the hierarchy in Russia I hope you think your wealth is worth all the stomach wrenching suffering of all the mothers and fathers that will endure their lives with a sense of emptiness hoping to see their children again. This is being done in your name. Your leader is not only turning a blind eye to this behaviour he is orchestrating it. He is obsessed with returning Russia back to its former glory but he’s doing so at the expense of others. There are no winners in war.

Ukraine should not stop when it gets it’s land back. It should fight until every single child that has been forcibly and shamefully trafficked has been returned.